Key takeaways
- A churn score tells you who is likely to lapse; a lifetime value score tells you what that lapse would cost, and together they rank the retention list.
- Uplift models send an offer only to shoppers it changes, so you stop paying discounts to people who would buy anyway.
- The same churn, value and propensity scores work per point of sale, so a consumer brand can rank the stores and outlets it serves.
- H2O is the scoring layer under the marketing systems you already run.
Your churn model is a list, not a decision
Most retailers already have a churn model. It produces a list of shoppers at risk, and the list gets the same offer, whether the shopper spends ten dollars a year or ten thousand.
That costs you twice. High-value customers still leave because the offer was not worth their attention, and loyal customers who were never going to leave take a discount they did not need.